If Portugal really brings Ronaldo with him in the 2026 US, Canada and Mexico World Cup, will they still have a chance?

Since the 21st century, the birth of the World Cup champion has always followed a hard-core logic: the road to the top must be the tempering of the strong. From the winning trajectory of previous champions, we can clearly see the core value of "strong team trials" - only by defeating top opponents in consecutive knockout matches can we finally win the Hercules Cup.

2002 Korea-Japan World Cup, Brazil defeated three powerful teams in Belgium, England and Germany in the knockout round, laying the foundation for "Five-Star Brazil" with three tough battles The legend; in the 2006 World Cup in Germany, Italy eliminated Germany in the semi-final penalty, defeated France again in the final, and was crowned with two strong dialogue victory; in the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, Spain eliminated Portugal, Germany and the Netherlands all the way, conquering the three strong teams with extreme pass control; in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, Germany defeated France, swept Brazil, and fought against Argentina, winning the championship with a crushing performance; in the 2018 World Cup in Russia, France defeated Argentina, Uruguay, Belgium and Croatia, demonstrating the strength of the king; in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Argentina, led by the king of football Messi, defeated three championship-level teams, namely the Netherlands, Croatia and France, and won the epic championship.

Compared with the occasional "group lucky guys" in the European Cup. Avoiding strong teams to go straight to the finals, the World Cup competition system and competitive intensity determine that in order to win the championship, you must encounter at least 2 football powerhouses in the knockout stage, and you will most likely have to defeat 3 players. If you are not lucky, you will even have to conquer 4 players in a row. The "football power" here includes both World Cup champions such as Brazil, Germany, and Italy, as well as the Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia, and Portugal, which have not had championship titles but have entered the semi-finals of the competition many times and have always been in the top ten in the world. Whether you can maintain stable output in a showdown with your opponents of the same level is the core criterion for measuring the quality of a champion candidate team.

However, looking back at the World Cup journey since Ronaldo was selected as the Portuguese national team, Portugal's performance in the "strong team trial" has always been difficult to meet the standards, which has become a fatal shortcoming that restricts his impact to the peak.

The 2006 World Cup in Germany was the pinnacle of Portugal this century. At that time, the "golden generation" with Figo as the core was still in the formation, and Ronaldo was the assistant to the battle as a new star. In the knockout round, the team defeated two strong rivals in the Netherlands and England and entered the semi-finals. Although they lost to France in the semi-finals and lost to Germany in the third and fourth place, they finally stopped in fourth place, but this record is one of the best performances in the history of the Portuguese World Cup.

As the golden generation gradually ended, Ronaldo took over the baton of the national team leader, Portugal's "strong team showdown ability" could be seen to the naked eye. In the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, after Portugal barely qualified in the group stage, he encountered the final champion Spain in the first round of knockout stage, and the 0-1 loss became a stepping stone for his opponent to win the championship; the confrontation with Brazil in the group stage only ended with a 0-0 draw and did not win a single victory.

2014 Brazil World Cup, Portugal's "strong team phobia" further intensified. In the direct dialogue with Germany in the group stage, the team suffered a 0-4 defeat, which directly led to the third place in the group's goal difference and was eliminated early, and even the threshold for the knockout stage was not reached.

In the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Portugal staged a peak showdown with Spain in the group stage. Ronaldo scored a hat trick to help the team draw the opponent 3-3, but still ranked second in the group due to the victory or defeat. In the quarterfinals, facing former World Cup champion Uruguay, Portugal lost 1-2, stopping in the quarterfinals again, and still failed to win against the strong team in the knockout stage.

In the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Portugal ushered in the "signing bonus", facing Switzerland in the first round of the knockout round and Morocco in the second round, avoiding the upper half of traditional giants. But even though they did not encounter top teams, the team still lost 0-1 to Morocco in the quarterfinals and stopped in the quarterfinals. It is worth noting that although Morocco is not a traditional giant, it eliminated Spain and Portugal in this competition and entered the semi-finals. Its actual combat power has reached the level of a strong team, and Portugal failed to win this "quasi-strong team duel", which further highlights its lack of offensive ability.

It is not difficult to find out that since the golden age of 2006, Portugal has never defeated any football power in the World Cup knockout round. The lack of ability to defeat opponents of the same level in key battles has kept them from the final stage. The problem of "soft strong team duels" such as

does not only exist in the World Cup, but also confirms this shortcoming. In the 2004 European Cup in Portugal, the team led by Figo defeated England and the Netherlands in the knockout round and entered the finals. They also defeated Spain in the group stage, showing their strong tough battle ability. But after Ronaldo became the absolute core, Portugal has never been able to defeat at least two football powerhouses in a single European Cup.

Even the European Cup journey in Portugal won the 2016 European Cup, it is difficult to prove its "strong team's ability to attack". In the knockout round, the team defeated Croatia in the 1/8 final, defeated Poland in the quarter-final penalty, and defeated Wales 2-0 in the semi-finals. Although they advanced all the way, only Croatia can be called a strong opponent; in the final against France, Ronaldo left the court early due to injury, and the team finally relied on Edel's final to win the championship, not defeating the strong opponent under the leadership of Ronaldo. In the 2012 European Cup, although Portugal defeated the Netherlands in the group stage, he lost to Spain in the semi-final penalty and failed to achieve a breakthrough of "two-win strong teams"; in the 2020 European Cup, the 2024 European Cup ended in the quarterfinals, and in the 2024 European Cup ended in the quarterfinals, neither of which completed consecutive defeats against the two strong teams in the knockout round..

From the logic of winning the World Cup, "a single-time competition defeated 2 to 3 strong teams" is the lowest threshold, and Portugal led by Ronaldo has never been able to overcome this hurdle. What is more worthy of attention is that Ronaldo himself often has weak performance in key battles against strong teams: he did not score in key matches such as Germany in the 2014 World Cup, Uruguay in the 2018 World Cup, and Morocco in the 2022 World Cup, and Morocco in the 2022 World Cup. Even though he scored goals in the group stage against strong teams such as Spain and Germany, it failed to translate into the team's victory. This performance of "hard battles and soft feet" not only reduces the value of individual leaders, but also directly limits Portugal to go further in the competition.

What is more controversial is that as Ronaldo grows older, his competitive state inevitably declines, but his "core treatment" in the team failed to adjust in time, which instead restricted the team's tactical evolution to a certain extent. There are many Mesozoic core players in the Portuguese formation such as Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandez, and Felix. They are more adapted to the passing and control rhythm and coordinated combat needs of modern football. However, in order to accommodate Ronaldo's tactical status, the team still needs to retain traditional playing styles such as "breakthrough on the wing and encirclement in the middle", which leads to the lack of flexibility in the offensive system.

The 2022 World Cup match against Switzerland may provide another possibility: when Ronaldo came on the bench, Portugal scored 6 goals with a smoother team, showing a completely different offensive vitality; this contrast vaguely points to a cruel reality: Portugal today may need to let Ronaldo return to the "mascot"-like spiritual symbolic role rather than occupying the core tactical position. Only when the team is no longer limited to a single core style of play, the organizational talent of players such as Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandez and other players and build a more balanced offensive and defensive system can it be possible to break the curse of "strong teams cannot win in the finals".

There is no "win" champion in the football world. The throne of the World Cup will always belong to those teams and leaders who can stand up in the duels of the strong. C Ronaldo's talent and achievements are beyond doubt. The attention and spiritual motivation he brought to Portuguese football are indelible, but during his leadership, Portugal has never been able to develop the hard-core ability to defeat strong teams continuously. This is not only the limitation of the team's lineup configuration and tactical system, but also closely related to the shortcomings of core players' performance in key battles.

If you want to touch the glory of the World Cup championship, Portugal may need to complete a "de-core" tactical innovation - let Ronaldo's spiritual value serve the team, rather than to allow the team to be accommodated in the core state. Only in this way can this team truly liberate their combat power and deliver a satisfactory answer in the "trial of a strong team".