Urawa Red Diamonds vs Fukuoka Hornets: Midfield game between pass control and suppression and anti-reverse strangulation

1. Points pattern and fighting spirit drive

AFC qualification battle vs relegation card battle

On July 27, at 18:00, the 23rd round of the Japanese League of Japan kicked off at Saitama 2002 Stadium. Home Urawa Red Diamonds (10 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, 37 points, 8th place) is only 6 points away from the AFC qualification zone, and it is urgent to consolidate their hopes of winning the championship through home wins; away team Fukuoka Hornets (8 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses, 31 points, 11th place) only leads the relegation playoff zone by 2 points, and there is an urgent need to grab points away. Urawa's home win rate is 69% (9 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses), 2 wins, 1 draw against Fukuoka in the last 3 home games; Fukuoka's away win rate is 30% (4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses), but has remained unbeaten in 4 wins, 2 draws in the last 6 main games.

Tactical variables of weather and venues

The temperature in Saitama City was 28°C on the day of the competition, with cloudy weather and good natural turf. Urawa's home possession rate exceeds 60% this season, but the high temperature may lead to the player's physical fitness distribution (the running distance in the second half decreases by 12%); Fukuoka only won 1 away artificial turf game, but the natural turf has strong adaptability (the success rate of passing and control has increased by 8%).

2. Tactical system and key strategies

Urawa Red Diamonds: 4-2-3-1 Field control system and set-piece killer moves

Wing infiltration and midfield suppression

Urawa is likely to use the 4-2-3-1 formation. Winds Yuga Kamitoyoya (4 goals) and Leandro (2 assists) will target the defensive weaknesses of Fukuoka right guard Masayuki Yamada (speed 31.2km/h). Urawa averaged 12 crosses per game (5th in the league), and the ability of high center forward Yu Ai Ai (1.85 meters, 68% header success rate) will become the key to breaking the situation. Wakaga Kamitoya successfully suppressed Yamada to take him over, Urawa right passes are expected to increase to 15 times (9 league average).

Setting ball efficiency and defense risks

Urawa 35% of the goals came from set pieces, and the cooperation between Shibazaki Gakuen (2nd in the corner arc accuracy league) and Hobraten (89% success rate of header competition) will target the weak links in Fukuoka set pieces (47% success rate). However, the main central defender Yoshi Yoshiro was absent and was forced to use the young central defender Kusato Nakagawa (1.78 meters tall). Facing Fukuoka High Center forward Lu Chian (1.91 meters) at a high altitude top score may expose his weakness.

Fukuoka Hornets: 5-4-1 Defensive counterattack and midfield strangling

The fatality of defensive counterattack

Fukuoka is based on the 5-4-1 formation, and the counterattack dual cores composed of new winger Misaki Kaoru (performed 2.8 successful passes per game) and Andrigo (scoring for the first time), making the team's counterattack goals account for 28%. Center Mutsu Kanezaki (5 goals)'s high-altitude top (1.89 meters) will challenge Urawa central defender Hobraten (only 48% of header clearance).

Midfield control and set-piece threat

Midfield core Fujimoto Kenami is suspended and needs to rely on the bench of substitute Lee Jae-yi (pass success rate is 83%). Fukuoka set-piece score rate is 30% (4th in the league), and Misaki's free kick (accuracy 65%) and Kanaki's point-grabbing may become the key to breaking the game. However, many people in the defense line were injured (Tadaya was also suspended and Oda Yimi was injured), and the defense stability was doubtful.

III. Data comparison and key indicators

Dimensions

Urawa Red Diamonds

Fukuoka Hornets

Ball-handling rate

58%(League stage)

46%(League stage)

Occasional efficiency

Average shots 11.8 times (Photo rate 41%)

Average shots 9.2 times (Photo rate 32%)

Counter-strike efficiency

Performance of counter-strike goals 22%

Counter-strike goals 28%

Defensive intensity

16.2 times per game (4th in the league)

Steps per game 14.3 Times (League Stage)

Setting Foot Threat

Score Rate 35% (Offensive)

Score Rate 30% (Offensive)

Historical Confrontations

4 wins 3 draws 3 losses in the last 10 times, 3 draws 1 loss at home

Last 10 times 3 wins 3 draws 4 losses, 1 win 3 draws 6 losses away

Home and away performance

Home and away performance

Home and away winning rate 6 goals in the last 3 games

away winning rate 30%, 3 goals in the last 2 games

4. Key Player Showdown

Wing Blasting Battle: Uga Kamiyoya (Uurawa) vs. Yamada Kazuno (Fukuoka)

Uga Kazunoya has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 3 games, with a 42% breakthrough on the right, which is Urawa's most stable scoring point; Yamada Kazunoya has served as the main right-back for the first time this season, lacking defensive experience (1.8 times per game), and has a return chase speed (31.2km/h) 2.6km/h behind Uga Kazunoya. If Uga Kantoya successfully suppresses Yamada, Urawa's right passes are expected to increase to 15 times (9 league averages); otherwise, Fukuoka's right assist will be greatly weakened.

Frontline Confrontation: Yu Aoi Yabu (Urawa) vs. Momoto Kanezaki (Fukuoka)

Yu Aoi Yabu is 1.85 meters tall, with a header success rate of 68%, but has not scored in the last 3 sports games, and his condition is doubtful; Momoto Kanezaki has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 3 games, with a 58% success rate of squad, especially at receiving crosses from the sidelines (4 headers). If Yu Aoi Ambe can take advantage of the loopholes in Fukuoka central defender Rahti (2.8 clearances per game, lack of experience), Urawa may break the deadlock; on the contrary, Kanezaki Mengsho's high-altitude top-square-top will leave Urawa's defense line running.

Midfielder Strangler: Endo Kou (Urawa) vs Lee Jae-yi (Fukuoka)

Endo Kou takes on 38% of Urawa's defensive tasks (2.8 interceptions per game), and needs to limit Lee Jae-yi's organization (directly participating in the team's 40% goals). If Lee Jae-yi can get rid of the marks through running (11.2km per game), Fukuoka's midfield control will increase by 30%; otherwise, Urawa's counterattack efficiency may be improved.

5. Win-loss hand and prediction

Urawa Red Diamonds' breakthrough key

Wing crossing and set-piece efficiency: Uga Kantoya's breakthrough is needed to create crossing opportunities. At the same time, the top-strike combination of Hobraten and Yu Aoi Ai needs to create at least 3 threats in set-pieces.

Midfield Control and Physical Fitness Management: Endo Kazuki must complete at least 2 key passes in the first 60 minutes to avoid the midfield losing control after Fujimoto’s absence, while reducing turnovers in high temperatures (Uurawa High Temperature Game Passing Success Rate decreased by 15%).

Fukuoka Hornets' winning elements

Counterattack efficiency and set pieces: Misaki Kaoru and Andrigo need to seize the gap between Urawa fullbacks in the counterattack, and at the same time, Mongsuke Kanezaki needs to successfully compete for the top in the set pieces at least 2 times.

Defensive concentration and psychological toughness: Fukuoka needs to keep the formation compact within 90 minutes, and use the Urawa defense to lose attention (40% of the goals conceded in 70 minutes in the last 3 games) to lock in the victory.

Score prediction

Both sides have distinct offensive and defensive characteristics, and the probability of a draw is relatively high (35%). If Urawa crosses work, it may win 2-1; if Fukuoka counterattack efficiency breaks out, Kanezaki Mongsu may score twice, with a 1-2 (30% probability).