June 28 Some events are analyzed and predicted.

Benfica Event Analysis:

1. Multidimensional Threat on the Offensive End: Benfica showed extremely strong offensive efficiency in the group stage, ranking first in Group C with 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 points, with an average of 3 goals per game and a shooting rate of up to 48%. The core attack group consists of Di Maria (8 goals and 12 assists), Schyedrupp (3 goals in the Club World Cup) and Pavkodis (4 goals). The three players formed a three-dimensional offensive through the wing, infiltration in the middle and set balls. Among them, Di Maria's key pass success rate reached 91%, and his right-hand link with Enzo Fernandez may target Chelsea left-back Colville (with doubtful condition after retraining). In addition, Benfica's offensive conversion rate of the Portuguese Premier League is the first, while Chelsea's set-piece conceded a goal this season is as high as 32%. This data comparison provides Benfica with a clear direction for breaking the situation.

2. Hidden dangers on defense and lack of personnel: Although he only conceded 2 goals in the group stage, Benfica's defensive stability is doubtful: After the main central defender Antonio Silva (muscle strain) was absent, the success rate of substitutes in the air top was only 53%, while Chelsea's Jackson (15 goals) and Nkunku (speed rating 8.2) are good at using their bodies to create threats. Left-back Alvaro's suspension further weakened the wide defense, and Morato on the right (speed rating 6.7) may become the key target of Chelsea's James Muderick combination on the right. In addition, Benfica's opponent xG (expected goal) reached 1.8 in the final round of the group stage, exposing the defensive line's insufficient response to counterattack.

Chelsea event analysis:

1. Midfield dominance and wing blast: Although Chelsea advanced to the second place in Group D in the group stage, Tunisia hopes to show strong tactical execution in the first game: ball possession rate of 62%, shooting rate of 45%, Enzo Fernandez (5 key passes) and Kesedo's double midfield combination fully control the rhythm of the midfield. On the wing, James and Muderick's right-hand link (5.1 overs per game) can target Benfica's weak defense on the left, while Nkunku's form has recovered after his comeback (contributing 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 3 games), and his speed impact with Jackson may become the key to breaking the situation.

2. Defensive risks and personnel rotation: Chelsea's defense faces multiple challenges: main right-back Rees James absent from training due to illness, although Colville resumed training, his condition was unknown, and Benfica's cross-over success rate reached 38% (first in the Portuguese Super League). In addition, six players face the risk of yellow cards suspended (including Kesedo and Kukurelia). If multiple players accumulate yellow cards, Maresca may be forced to activate young central defender Badiacile (58% confrontation success rate), which provides Benfica with an opportunity to take advantage of. However, Chelsea's substitute depth (such as Drapp and George) has proved its strength in the Club World Cup group stage. Drapp scored in the first show and George came on the bench to the world. This lineup thickness may become a winner at the end of the game.

Comprehensive analysis of the two teams' matches: The

win rate model shows that Chelsea's regular time win rate is 65.2%, but Benfica's 18.5% upset probability cannot be ignored - especially at the level of set pieces and Di Maria's personal performance. In the Asian session, Chelsea raised 0.5 goals from the initial set to 0.75 goals, and institutions' confidence in the Blues has increased, but the away win accounted for 72% of the Betfair trading volume may trigger a backlash of heat, and one goal must be defended from a small victory. In terms of big and small goals, the total goals of both sides in the last three encounters have been ≤2 goals, and rain is expected to occur in this game, with a probability of 2.75 goals being 68%.

Chelsea should focus on limiting Di Maria's shot route and use James' insertion to suppress Benfica's left; Benfica needs to strengthen his close defense against Enzo, and make up for the insufficient height of the defense line through set pieces. It is worth noting that if Chelsea leads at the end of the game, it may use George and other young players to delay time, and Benfica's high-pressure may be broken by a counterattack after its physical fitness declines. Chelsea is more optimistic with its midfield control and lineup thickness, but Benfica's set piece and home atmosphere may cause surprises. The regular time ends. If overtime is entered, Benfica's physical disadvantage may lead to a defeat.

Club World Cup 017 Benfica vs Chelsea Forecast: Negative Score: 02, 12, 13 Goals: 3/4 Goals