Detailed analysis of the Premier League Champions League: Manchester City is 1 point away, Newcastle Chelsea wins

This weekend, the 38th round of the Premier League will be staged, and it is also the last game of the entire season. As multiple suspense has been revealed, the remaining three UEFA Champions League qualifications have become the focus of attention. Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest, who can participate in the Champions League next season?

Earlier, Arsenal defeated Newcastle with a small goal at home, and the points have reached 71 points, and he has qualified for the Champions League in advance. Due to the advantage of goal difference, even if Manchester City loses to Southampton in the last round, it will be difficult for Arsenal to overtake, and the chances of keeping the second place are quite high. After losing the Champions League semi-finals, Arsenal announced that it had ushered in a season where all four of them were gone. He has become the runner of the champion for three consecutive years. He still has confidence and motivation next season. Will he launch an attack on the champion again?

Due to the impact of the FA Cup final, Manchester City's league was delayed. Although both sides received a red card, Manchester City could still quickly recover the championship's bad mood and defeat Bournemouth at home. After the game, the club held a grand farewell ceremony for legendary midfielder De Bruyne, with a ten-year "Blue Moon" career, 1 world champion, 2 European champions, 6 Premier League champions, and 10 domestic cup champions, and no regrets in this life. After taking all three points, Manchester City has ensured that they can play in the Europa League at least and will not fall into the Europa League. Because of the advantage of goal difference, Manchester City's final game is away. As long as you score 1 point on Fulham, you can ensure the top five and continue to stay in the Champions League. However, if you lose, there is a possibility of missing the Champions League, and the whole Manchester City team cannot be taken lightly.

From a realistic perspective, Manchester City has a considerable chance of entering the Champions League. Newcastle, Chelsea and Aston Villa with 66 points, and Nottingham Forest, which have 65 points, may only be able to compete for the last two Champions League places. In the last round, Chelsea faced Nottingham Forest at home, and the two opponents met directly, which was eye-catching. Newcastle faces Everton at home, while Aston Villa goes to challenge Manchester United away.

From the perspective of goal difference, Newcastle and Chelsea are much ahead. As long as they win in the last round, they can actually qualify for the Champions League, and the two teams have the initiative. Newcastle has lost two of the past five games, just losing to two direct opponents of Aston Villa and Arsenal, and defeating Chelsea retains the greatest hope. Facing Everton, who is ranked low, Newcastle has no way out, and will enter the Champions League if he wins. Although he has hope of participating in the Champions League or loses, the situation of missing out will be even greater.

Although Chelsea has the dual advantages of points and goal difference, the final round of the match against Nottingham Forest was obviously a decisive battle related to the qualification of the Champions League. Since returning to the Premier League three years ago, Nottingham Forest has faced Chelsea five times, both sides have achieved 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. In the first round of this season, the two teams also ended with a draw. However, Chelsea has no advantage in home courts in the past two seasons.

In the last five league rounds, Chelsea has relied on Liverpool and Manchester United, and the only loss comes from Newcastle, and the form is still OK. It should be noted that the European Union finals will be a few days later, and I don’t know if it will bring some distractions. Maresca should not need to rotate the lineup significantly. You can use the main force to attack in both games. If you win two consecutive games, you can get a Champions League place and a European champion.

Nottingham Forest, which has been in the top three, has lost 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 7 rounds, losing 13 points. It has gone from restlessness in the Champions League to the least hope. It is a pity that the Premier League dark horse "collapses" at the last moment. Now, Nottingham Forest, which is both behind both goal difference and points, only one possibility remains to enter the Champions League.

Aston Villa in the "slit" was a little embarrassed. The goal difference was the least among several teams. Even if they beat Everton in the last round, whether they could enter the Champions League depends on others' expressions. More than a month ago, Aston Villa was the only team left in three games in the Premier League. Now it has become many difficulties, and all the championships have been lost. If you lose the final round, you can only say goodbye to the Champions League.

If the huge score is not considered, the conditions for the five Premier League teams to qualify for the Champions League are as follows:

Manchester City can be divided into two types: First, Manchester City wins or draws, second, Manchester City loses, and Newcastle won't win, Chelsea won't win, and Villa won't win, these three conditions meet one.

Newcastle can be divided into three types: First, Newcastle wins, second, Newcastle draws, and Chelsea draws or Villa can't win, third, Newcastle loses, and Villa can loses.

Chelsea can be divided into three types: First, Chelsea wins, second, Chelsea draws, Newcastle loses or Villa can't win, third, Chelsea loses, and both Newcastle and Villa can lose, and Newcastle loses three more goals than Chelsea.

Aston Villa can be divided into two types. First, Villa wins, Manchester City loses, Newcastle fails, and Chelsea fails. One of these three conditions meets one. Second, Villa draws, and Newcastle loses at the same time.

Nottingham Forest, there is only one type, the forest wins, Newcastle and Aston Villa cannot win at the same time.

5 Premier League teams, competing for 3 Champions League places, who can get ashore?