TA predicts Eastern Conference rankings: Cavaliers 59 wins and 23 losses first, Magic New York second and third, Green Army and Pacers falling behind

Translator's Note: The original article was published in TA, and the author is John Hollinger. The data in the article are as of the time of publication of the original article (October 14, local time), and the dates and times involved are all local time. The opinions in this article have nothing to do with the translator and the platform.

Prediction of the trend of the NBA Eastern Conference in the 2025-26 season:

Before the offseason began, three playoff players, Damian Lillard of the Milwaukee Bucks, Tatum of the Boston Celtics, and Haliburton of the Indiana Pacers, suffered Achilles tendon ruptures one after another, which completely changed the pattern of the upcoming new season. At least one team from the Bucks, Celtics or Pacers has made the Eastern Conference Finals every year since 2016. However, these teams may not even advance to the second round this season.

Instead, get ready for a whole new world, including a new Eastern Conference champion. The games in May and June will feature some unusual teams - of my top five predicted teams, only two have been to the Eastern Conference Finals since 2018, and each has only been there once (Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks). Take out the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the record is even bleaker; the teams I predict for second through fifth have only appeared in the Eastern Conference Finals a combined three times since 2010.

It seems likely that two of the five teams -- the Cavaliers, Magic, Knicks, Hawks and Pistons -- will make it to the Eastern Conference Finals in May. The Cavaliers led the Eastern Conference with 64 wins in the regular season last year and are expected to dominate the regular season again in the new season, but they need to prove their strength in the playoffs because they have been disappointing in the playoffs for three consecutive years. Whether they can finally break through becomes the biggest attraction in the Eastern Conference.

Without further ado, let’s get into specific analysis. Here are my predictions for the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference, and how they can influence that outcome through roster adjustments in the coming months:

8. Toronto Raptors (39-43)

NBA rules stipulate that eight teams in the Eastern Conference must make the playoffs, regardless of whether these teams are actually playoff-worthy or how confused their team-building strategies are. I predict there will be six really good teams in the East, with the Heat likely to be the seventh through sheer toughness.

After this...will it be the Raptors? Maybe. I really don't know what the Raptors are doing or what their goals are going forward, but since they're in the East, they still have a good chance of making the playoffs. The Celtics and Pacers may not be able to win 40 games due to injuries and salary issues, the 76ers may never be fully healthy and the Bulls are destined to compete in the play-in game between No. 9 and No. 10.

Meanwhile, the Raptors lack depth and cohesion, and their shooting issues are particularly glaring (convincing Ingram that three-pointers are more valuable than two-pointers might help). But the Raptors' starting five is clearly more talented than their competition (except for the 76ers, who are all healthy), and they have some ways to keep the bench from being too terrible.

Let's take a look at the core five, a tall and talented lineup: Ingram, Quickley, Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Poeltl are all undoubtedly starters in any lineup, but don't look complementary on paper. Solving the coordination issues between the two point forwards in Ingram and Barnes, especially with center Poeltl not good at shooting and limited space at other positions, may be the key to making the offense flow.

The Toronto Raptors may have limited operations during the season; I assume their goal is to get back below the luxury tax line, and I don't think they will make any major changes to their current roster. However, if there's one player who can be traded, it's Barrett, a player with a mediocre shooting who looks out of place playing alongside two ball-dominant forwards. He might be better suited as a sixth man, but only if the Raptors have another fifth man worthy of starting. However, he would be better suited to play on another team. His $27.7 million contract is enough to serve as salary balance for important signings, even if Toronto tries to avoid the luxury tax.

As for the bench, the Raptors mainly rely on recent draft picks to make some noise. So far, they have mostly failed to do so. Toronto's bench is led by three recent first-round draft picks, and the rest of the roster has been more subpar. Hopefully the Raptors can stagger their lineups and ensure at least one of their four perimeter starters is on the floor, as the second unit has absolutely no ability to create points.

The one to watch, however, is big man Mamukelashvili, who has a chance to shine behind Poeltl and breathe life into a lifeless bench. I'm also excited about Boyles' defensive abilities and remain a fan of Jonathan Mogbo.

The Toronto Raptors parted ways with long-time president Masai Ujiri this offseason, with general manager Bobby Webster taking over as the primary person responsible for basketball decision-making. He needs to regain the organizational focus the team had after winning the 2019 championship (Peltel's four-year, $104 million contract extension was a lackluster start). The Raptors are constrained by five starters being overpaid but on the edge of the luxury tax line, and despite their sixth-highest-paid player making only $6.3 million, they desperately need to bolster their roster through the draft and player development. Before that, they will be stuck in the Eastern Conference playoff playoffs.

7. Miami Heat (39 wins and 43 losses)

The Miami Heat struggled to squeeze into the playoffs in the 2024-25 season, but were completely defeated by Cleveland in the first round. Over the past two seasons, the Heat have lost seven playoff games by more than 14 points, underscoring the vast gap between them and the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Despite winning eight playoff series and reaching the NBA Finals twice from 2020-23, the Heat are now far from contention.. From a certain point of view, the Bucks should trade him now to get the most value instead of barely making it to the first round of the playoffs.

But at present, it seems that the Bucks can remain in good enough condition for at least another year. Signing Turner to extend Lillard's contract seems like a bad decision on the surface, but is probably the least bad choice they could make to maintain the status quo. Additionally, by adjusting their books, the Bucks likely won't have to worry about the luxury tax in the next few years and could trade a future first-round pick in 2031 or 2032 to trade Kuzma or Portis for a better player. However, we will have to wait until May to see how Antetokounmpo is in shape.

5. Detroit Pistons (45 wins and 37 losses)

After experiencing the most enjoyable season in the past two decades, how will the Detroit Pistons continue their glory? "Win a playoff series" is their likely answer -- something that hasn't been accomplished since 2008 -- but it could be another year before the Pistons get there. The team's 30-win improvement from a poor performance in 2023-24 to last season's playoff trip is amazing. There will likely be an adjustment period before the Pistons take another leap, though. Although the "glass ceiling effect" in basketball is not as obvious as in baseball, replicating miracles is always difficult.

Let's look at the positive side first: the Pistons' core players are still very young. Cunningham broke out in his fourth season and was only 24 years old. Big man Jaylen Duren is about to renew his contract. He won't turn 22 until November, and the same goes for defensive star Osa Thompson. These three, plus 2024 lottery pick Ron Holland II, are likely to be the Pistons' core lineup in the future.

In the short term, the Pistons relied on the help of some veterans to reach the playoffs last season, but some of these players have left. Schroeder and Hardaway Jr. went to other teams, Fontechio was traded, and the future of shooter Beasley is still uncertain. In addition, power forward Tobias Harris is 33 years old and his contract is about to expire.

Fortunately, the Pistons performed well in the offseason, introducing LeVert to make up for the ball control gap after Schroeder left the team, and traded Fontechio for Dun Luo. An added benefit is that the Pistons intend to sign Dunroe at a high salary because they have enough salary space-they are still $21 million away from the luxury tax line. If not, the Pistons can waive Dunro next summer, as he only has a guaranteed salary of $2 million in the 2026-27 season.

Ultimately, the Pistons need another star player to emerge to reach the 50-win club and earn a higher seed in the East. Osar Thompson and Holland are the top internal candidates, but offensive limitations may prevent them from being the best pairing for Cunningham. Last season, the Pistons ranked only 16th in offense and struggled in the playoffs.

This is where the Pistons need to make a move: They have all future first-round picks, a clean salary sheet and expiring contracts to facilitate a trade. Just a year ago, they won only 14 games, and now they're in star-chasing mode. It's incredible. Adding a scoring wing or forward to form a core with Cunningham, Duren and Osar Thompson would catapult the Pistons to the next level. The trade deadline in Detroit could be very interesting.

In the meantime, there are other issues in the lineup that need to be addressed. Can Ivey be the starter long-term? Is he worth the investment beyond this season? Or will the Pistons' "deep roster" hold them back during the long regular season? Will their shooting ability be enough without Beasley?

Long term, Detroit's future looks bright. In the Eastern Conference where competition is not fierce, we should at least strive to be in the top six in the new season. However, the Pistons may still need a major trade to take another step forward.

4. Atlanta Hawks (49-33)

The Atlanta Hawks are full of optimism after a successful offseason, especially after trading a potential 2026 lottery pick from New Orleans. By trading a late first-round pick and the contracts of unpopular Terrence Mann and Georges Niang for Porzingis, the Hawks immediately solved their biggest problem: filling the center spot after Capela's decline. While Porzingis may not play a full 82 games, he could provide Atlanta with 50 to 60 All-Star-caliber performances and give Trae Young a floor-spacing big man he never had.

The Hawks also strengthened Trae Young's organizational capabilities when he is not on the court by introducing Alexander Walker and Luke Kennard; the severely underestimated Jaylen Johnson also returned after missing the second half of last season. Okongwu is overloaded as a starter, but will become one of the best "third big men" in the league, likely switching between the two frontcourt positions. If Porzingis is healthy enough, Okongwu may become a strong contender for Sixth Man of the Year. First-round pick Asa Newell adds depth, while Nfali Daunt and Gueye serve as backup insurance.

If there is a question mark, it is the rotation at the small forward position. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, Lisa Shee, will try to improve on his rookie season on a team with high expectations. “Do something fun” is clearly not enough. Behind him, Krejic and Caleb Horston, who is on a non-guaranteed contract, are the only other true small forwards on the roster, but 6-foot-8 defensive stalwart Dyson Daniels can slide over from guard and will likely finish games in a three-guard lineup with Alexander Walker and Trae Young.

Although the Hawks' operations did not make them a championship team, it did make them the second tier in the Eastern Conference with a high winning rate (more than 40 wins). Notably, Suggs is still recovering from a rare knee injury that will cause him to miss the second half of the 2024-25 season.

Nonetheless, the Magic's raw offense is usually enough to sustain most games because they have an excellent defense. The team has two tall and agile forwards, a lock-down defender in Suggs, and a number of lively and athletic bench players such as Jonathan Isaac, Anthony Blake and Bitadze. This is a team with fierce physical confrontation. They commit frequent fouls but control the rebounds. Last season, they ranked first in opponent turnover rate and second in defensive rebounds.

Overall, the Magic appear ready to take a big step, but it's also a huge bet. They gave up four first-round picks to acquire Bane and gave Banqueiro a supermax contract without hesitation. As a small-market team, the Magic have exceeded next season's projected luxury tax line by nearly $20 million (in addition to exceeding this season's tax line by nearly $6 million).

They have this lineup locked in, for better or worse. A slow start could raise some questions and could even lead to instability in the coaching position. But the new guard combination needs time to develop chemistry and role positioning. It may get off to a rocky start, but I believe the Magic's average offense and elite defense will be successful in the East.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (59 wins and 23 losses)

The Cleveland Cavaliers have performed well in the past three regular seasons, winning 51, 48 and 64 wins respectively, and the score difference is also considerable. However, that only translated into two playoff series wins and an 11-15 postseason record with a core that included Donovan Mitchell, Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers have the most expensive roster in the league this season, with salaries and luxury taxes totaling nearly $400 million (more than twice the salary cap), and they must make a deeper playoff run this spring or may need to consider major roster changes.

Fortunately, everything is developing in their favor. No team in the Eastern Conference that the Cavaliers play can actually match their 64 wins last year, especially with Boston and Indiana opting for a "transition year" after serious injuries. For Cleveland, the conditions to reach the NBA Finals are perfect.

As for executing this strategy, the regular season likely won't be an obstacle, as the Cavaliers appear poised to be the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs for the second straight year.

However, the fragility of this lineup deserves discussion. The Cavaliers basically collapsed against Indiana in the playoffs last season because no one was in top shape, even as they eased to a close late in the regular season and got plenty of rest after sweeping Miami in the first round.

The races in May and June could get tricky again. Both Mitchell and Hunter's knees require constant monitoring, key backups Dean Wade, Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance are all frequently injured, and Struss has been sidelined due to injury. Then there's Allen's problem: He was extremely good from October to April, but often struggled in the playoffs. If that happens again, especially with Allen's three-year, $91 million contract extension set to take effect, the Cavaliers will have to make some tough decisions.

Nonetheless, let's return to the optimistic scenario. The Cavaliers have four All-Stars! They also have three deadly outside shooters surrounding these players! (Hunter, Struss and Merrill are all scorers from behind the arc.) It's not easy to stop these guys. Oh, by the way, in addition to being the league's No. 1 offensive team in the 2024-25 season, they also have the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Mobley. His performance has taken to another level, which will be a positive factor heading into the 2025-26 season.

With an expensive core four, the front office has done a good job of replenishing the roster. Ones to watch are 2024 first-round pick Jalen Tyson and 2025 second-round pick Tyrese Proctor, both of whom appear ready to help. No matter what you think of Ball, he's more playoff viable than Okoro, who was traded away.

Despite the worrisome performance over the past three postseasons, I'd be betting on this roster. On paper, Cleveland is the best team in the East and has no opponents like Boston or Indiana to challenge their status. This time, the Cavaliers should be able to reach the Finals for the first time without LeBron James.

Original text: JohnHollinger

Compiled by: selu