From countdown to No. 1 pick: Behind the Mavericks 1.8% miracle, in-depth analysis of the top 30 players in the 2025 draft

The dust has been settled in the NBA draft lottery, and a probability game completely rewritten the league pattern. When the Dallas Mavericks won the No. 1 pick with a slim probability of 1.8%, everyone was shocked - this team that was trapped in the quagmire by Luca Doncic's trade actually got the chance to win the talented star Cooper Flag on June 25. The San Antonio Spurs locked in the second place, the Philadelphia 76ers won the Tanhua, and the Charlotte Hornets ranked fourth. Behind the seemingly normal pick, there was actually undercurrents.

This draw is a historically unpopular: the probability of the Spurs winning the top two picks is only 12.3%, and the probability of the 76ers winning the top three picks is only 32%. The Mavericks' counterattack not only disrupted the original structure of the lottery zone, but also caused a chain reaction in the superstar trading market. The Spurs, Rockets, 76ers and other teams are very likely to use draft picks as bargaining chips in exchange for immediate combat stars, and a game about talent and future officially kicks off.

Draft rules and simulation logic:

This simulated draft fully considers the actual needs of the team. The player's age shall be based on the draft date on June 25, and the height data shall refer to the official website (the subsequent adjustment may be due to joint trial training). Next, let us analyze this suspense-filled draft conference team by team.

1. Dallas Mavericks - The Road to Redemption for No. 1 pick

No matter which team holds No. 1 pick, Flag is the first choice without any dispute. The 18-year-old talented boy has secured the NCAA Player of the Year ahead of schedule. His all-around data averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game is amazing, and the explosion period after January is even more terrifying: he averages 20.5 points, 7 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game, and his three shooting percentage is as high as 51.1%/45.1%/88%, leading Duke to 23 wins and 2 losses. His talent is considered to be second only to Victor Vinbanyama in the past 20 years, and is even comparable to Anthony Davis.

But the Mavericks face sweet troubles: Flagg is more suitable for power forward position, which means Anthony Davis needs to return to center, and Liverley II and Garford will retreat to the bench. Will the management choose to make long-term strategic adjustments, or will it continue to strengthen around the existing lineup? Flag's arrival may become a key turning point in the team's reconstruction.

2. San Antonio Spurs - A choice between talent and strategy

Although the Spurs just won Darron Fox and had Rookie of the Year Stephen Castle in the backcourt, Harper's talent cannot be ignored. The freshman guard averaged 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4 assists per game. With his 6-6 height and top-level finishing ability at the basket, he became a rare "first-year" player. Although his three-point shooting percentage is only 29.2%, he has adjusted his shooting curve in recent training. The Spurs, who hold the second pick, may not only regard Harper as a cornerstone to train, but may also use this as a bargaining chip to take the initiative in Giannis trade.

3. Philadelphia 76ers - The plight and opportunities of the swinger

76ers are already overcrowded in the backcourt, but the front line urgently needs supplementary. Pele averaged 17.6 points and 7 rebounds per game, but due to the high center of gravity of the dribble, the breakout efficiency was insufficient, and the defensive enthusiasm was also controversial. However, when he was not on the court, Rutgers netted 23 points per 100 possessions, which is enough to prove his tactical value. Will Daryl Morey bet on this player whose talent and controversy coexist? Or exchange draft picks for immediate combat power? The answer is full of suspense.

4. Charlotte Hornets - The rise of the defensive vanguards

The Hornets urgently need to build a defensive system for Lamelo Ball and Brandon Miller, and Edgecombe is the perfect answer. This top-notch defender can not only shoulder the heavy responsibility of outside defense, but also has the potential to convert offensively. Although the dribbling skills on the offensive end still need to be polished, his average of 15 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists is enough to prove that he deserves the team's focus.

5. Utah Jazz - The discovery of potential new stars

Utah Jazz found that Johnson's training performance was impressive during his observation in early April. He showed a high level of athletic shooting ability and averaged 19.9 points per game despite limited opportunities in Texas' offensive system. Kiyant George in the backcourt is inefficient and has problems with defense, and Isaiah Collier has a single scoring method, and Johnson's arrival is expected to inject new vitality into Will Hardy's system, and he is expected to become the team's key puzzle for the future.

6. Washington Wizards - Recruitment of local geniuses Will Dawkins, general manager of Wizards, favors players who can dribble, pass, shoot and have decision-making skills, and Quinn just fits these qualities. As a freshman, he averaged nearly 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists per game, showing great potential. Quinn comes from the DMV area, and his combination with Alex Sal may cause chemical reactions. Quinn's sense of inside position is expected to make up for Sal's shortcomings in rebounding, and Sal's weak side rim protection ability can also improve Quinn's defensive performance. This combination is worth looking forward to.

7. New Orleans Pelicans - The scorer's joining

The New Orleans Pelicans fired David Griffin and hired Joe Dumas, the team's lineup may change significantly. Kneple is a very competitive and tough tall shooter, and he and Johnson have the potential to be a top shooter. Although the team was disappointed that they lost the lottery, getting Kneple might be a good result. He has excellent dribbling skills and his defensive performance is underestimated. No matter what the team's future direction is, Kneple may become an important firepower point on the team's offensive end.

8. Brooklyn Nets - Potential point guard bet

Fells is a very controversial player in the assessment, some believe that he has the potential to be a top point guard, and others feel that he is more suitable as a long-term substitute. There are loopholes in the Nets' backcourt, and under the coaching of Halli Fernandez, it is reasonable to choose Ferce. But he has difficulties in scoring, his dribbling skills have not yet fully developed, his three-point threat is insufficient, and his long-distance shooting percentage is less than 30%. However, many teams believe that his jump shot has room for improvement. If it can be improved, his passing and organizational ability will be better played. His height and passing vision are the advantages that the team values.

19. Brooklyn Nets - Training of potential forwards

Newell is a dynamic big man who averages 15.4 points and 7 rebounds per game as a freshman. But his skills are confused in the NBA, their height may not reach 6-foot-11, and their length is insufficient, and their peripheral shooting and dribbling skills need to be improved. The Nets can slowly develop his skills, give him playing time, and use his vitality to create trouble for opponents. His potential is worth the team's investment in the end of the first round.

20. Miami Heat - Shooter's Potential and Challenge

From a talent perspective, Richardson is a good choice. In the last 15 games, he averaged 16.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and made only 0.7 turnovers. He feels great as a shooter and scorer, but his point guard skills are still developing. He is not a good passer, and his right-hand dribbling ability needs to be improved, and Michigan State's tactics often allow him to catch the ball with his left hand. The team will further examine him during meetings and training. He has the potential to become an important force on the team's offensive end, but also faces the challenge of skill improvement.

21. Utah Jazz - The comprehensiveness and development of the Wings

McNeley made a significant contribution to the Huskies in his freshman season, but his role has not yet fully realized its potential. With an average of 14.5 points per game, he only shot 38% from the field and 32% from three-pointers. Although he is considered an excellent shooter, his actual performance is different from his reputation. He did not perform as well when he had the ball. At the University of Connecticut, he shot 43% from three-pointers without defense, but his three-pointers were only 13% from step back, and his ability to dribble away from defense was insufficient. However, his competitive spirit and personality are loved by the team, and the team believes that in the right position, his jump shot is expected to return to the elite level of high school, and his comprehensiveness and potential make him a player worth developing.

22. Atlanta Hawks - The Rise of the Potential Wing Front

Coward is a dark horse candidate for this draft. He has only played six games this year, but has performed well, averaging 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists, shooting 56% from the field, 40% from three-pointers, and 84% from free throws. He was later reimbursed due to a shoulder injury. In Los Angeles in April, his training performance was impressive. As an athlete with a height of 6 feet 6 and an arm span of about 7 feet 1, he has excellent balance and fluency, his jump shots are coherent and clean, his mechanical movements are easy to repeat, his feel is excellent, and his explosive power is also improved. He is a high potential option for the team in the second half of the first round, and there may be better opportunities for development if he chooses to join Duke, but his current performance has proven that he deserves to stay in the draft.

23. Indiana Pacers - Inside Potential Stocks Digging

Indiana Pacers like sporting big players, and even if Miles Turner may stay in the team, they still need to find a long-term backup center. While Bellinger may not be able to take on the role immediately, he has the potential to be a good partner in Thales Halliburton's conversion offensive. He is an excellent jumper with strong hands and can easily catch the ball on the inside and outside. If his game develops over the next three years, he is expected to be a basket protector and block-type big man who can adapt to a variety of defensive situations, and his potential deserves the attention and development of the team.

24. The Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunders are facing huge lineup pressure and it is difficult to train two rookies at the same time in the new season. Peng Da’s arrival is more like a “potential reserve” choice, and may even face the fate of being temporarily “hidden” or traded by the team. He is 6-foot-8 and weighs 245 pounds. He has many traits that the Thunder loves - he is good at dribbling, passing and shooting, and has certain potential on the defensive end. Although his average number of nearly 10 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists per game, and his shortcomings are occasionally exposed due to gambling defense, his outstanding physical fitness and football quotient have given him broad development space in the defense switching system. As long as the speed advantage is maintained, Peng Da is expected to become a key pawn in the Thunder's future defensive rotation.

25. Orlando Magic

Clayton is a super star who stood out in this year's NCAA Championship. With his impressive data averaged 18 points, 4 assists, 45% shooting percentage, 39% three-point shooting percentage and 88% free throw percentage, he was awarded the most outstanding player in the Championship. His shooting ability is top-notch, whether it is an emergency stop jump shot, a three-pointer in the back, or a finish under the basket after a breakthrough, it is extremely lethal. However, his shortcomings are also obvious: the pick-and-roll reading is not stable enough, and the positioning on the defensive end is also relatively vague. Although he has relatively limited room for growth as a senior, he will still become a popular candidate in the first round draft with his big heart traits and tough style of playing in the championship, and is expected to inject fire into the Magic's backcourt.

26. Brooklyn Nets

The Spanish teenager who played for Real Madrid won the favor of scouts with an unparalleled game attitude. Whether it is fighting for floor ball on the offensive end or actively filling in the defensive end, Gonzalez always goes his best. At the skill level, he has shown certain potential for singles with balls, but there is still a gap between the NBA-level confrontation and rhythm. Currently, 29% of his three-point shooting percentage has become his "Achilles' heel". If he wants to gain a foothold in the league, he must improve his shooting stability as soon as possible. However, with his excellent athleticism and defensive enthusiasm, he may still become the Nets' defensive vanguard on the forward line in the future.

27. Brooklyn Nets

Fleming can be regarded as the "talent monster" in this draft - the 6-foot-9 height and a terrifying arm span of 7-foot-4, coupled with his explosive physical fitness, makes him extremely deterrent on both sides of the offense and defense.. The average of 15 points, 8 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks per game, and a 39% three-point shooting percentage perfectly meets the demand of Hyundai basketball for the "3D forward". Although his current speed and game experience are not enough, his talent is visible to the naked eye to make any team willing to bet on the future - for the Nets who are eager to rebuild, Fleming may be the key gentleman who can change the front line.

28. Boston Celtics

Firon proved his potential with a comprehensive performance during his freshman season at the University of Alabama. He can not only hold the ball to start the pick-and-roll, but also flexibly cut in as the second ball holder, and his defensive end is full of passion and vitality. However, his draft prospects are still full of variables: if he can further polish his skills and show his potential in the pre-draft trial, he is expected to hit the lottery zone; otherwise, he may fall out of the first round. For the Celtics, choosing Fellon is like a "potential investment" - if he can successfully realize his talent, he may become a right-hand man around Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

29. Phoenix Suns

As a dazzling star in the European arena, Sarav won the European Under-18 Championship MVP last summer and set a record for scoring. Despite his performance this season, his dribbling rhythm and accurate mid-range shooting during his breakthrough still show the potential of a top double-level guard. However, when the opponent targets his left-hand attack, his ball handling ability will be tested, and his ball-control skills also need to be further polished. For the Suns, which urgently need to enhance their organizational capabilities, Sarav's passing vision and double-powered guard attributes may inject new offensive vitality into the team.

30. Los Angeles Clippers

With Ben Simmons entering the free agent market this summer, the Clippers are in urgent need of finding a reliable substitute center. Kalkbrenner, who is 7-foot-1, can be called a "pick-roll defense expert". With his excellent defensive angle choice and terrifying arm span, he can effectively reduce the team's defensive decline after Ivica Zubac's exit. In the past four seasons, he has won the Great Eastern Conference's best defensive player of the year, and his average of 19 points and 9 rebounds this season also proves his stability on the offensive end. For the Clippers who are determined to compete for the championship, Kalk Brenner may be the "last puzzle" in their inside rotation.

Second round:

(Note: Due to the violations in the free agent market, the New York Knicks have given up their second-round draft pick in 2025.)

This suspenseful draft drama is about to be staged. From the No. 1 pick Flag to the potential dark horse in the second round, every choice may reshape the future pattern of the NBA. Which players can stand out in the league? Which teams can become the biggest winners? Let's hold our breath!