ESPN experts predict: Can Flag win MVP&amp in his career? The championship?

As the most optimistic American rookie since LeBron James, Cooper Flag will be the focus of the spotlight no matter which team he is in.

Now, with the blessing of good luck that can be called "winning the grand prize", the Dallas Mavericks have become Flag's first destination for the league, and all this coincides with the team's huge change season just after. This also puts Flag in a rare position - as the new No. 1 pick, he has the opportunity to make contributions to a championship team in his rookie season.

Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison said at the Flag meeting in July: "We are the model of winning all our efforts. He can help us win the present and help the team win the future." The question is, Flag joins forces with several future Hall of Famers members in the current lineup. How far can the Mavericks go? When will he score the All-Star? Can he win MVP and championship in his career? Let’s take a look at the predictions of the ESPN expert group - How far can Flag and the Mavericks go in the new season?

Question: Who was the last No. 1 pick to play in the playoffs as a rookie?

No. 1 pick is not common for the playoffs in the rookie season. The last time they did this was Markle Fultz and Ben Simmons in the 2017-18 season (Simmons missed due to injury in his first season and played in his first season in 17-18). The "focus on the process" was finally fulfilled in Philadelphia, and the greater hero was actually Joel Embiid's battles were more than twice the total in the previous three years. The situation of

Flag is also special. The Mavericks first lost the finals, then traded to send off Luca Doncic, a strong contender for the year-round MVP at its peak, and then won the No. 1 pick with a 1.8% chance.

Frager is expected to enter the Mavericks starting lineup directly, but he will not be asked to carry the team in his rookie season because he has many experienced veterans around him, especially Anthony Davis, who is also the No. 1 pick in the draft and 10-time All-Star.

However, the Mavericks' playoff prospects are closely related to the injury recovery of another No. 1 pick, Kyrie Irving, who suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in March. Will Irving come back next season? Can it be restored to the All-Star level? It will directly affect the team's offensive development.

Up to 73.1% of experts predict that the Mavericks will enter the playoffs this season, and 23.1% believe that they can enter the top six straight-through playoffs, while the probability of the top four seeds having a home advantage in advance to the playoffs is 0.

Flag + Dark Eyebrow + Irving trio, how many rounds of the series can they win together? Nearly two-thirds of experts believe that the trio will win at most two rounds of the series. Only about 15% of the forecasts are optimistic and they are optimistic that they can win more than four rounds.

Considering the fact that Irving and Davis are 33 or 32 years old, and Irving needs time to recover from the ACL injury, the worry about the future is not unreasonable. The Mavericks' winning window is right now, and the veterans are gradually leaving their peak period. Health and running-in will determine whether they can overcome expectations.

At the same time, despite Flag's talent, he is still a rookie - even the most mature players will encounter a "rookie wall". Of course, our discussion will not be limited to this season, but the sooner the Mavericks ensure that the trio can make their debut at the same time in a healthy state, the sooner they can win the series with this core lineup, the more conducive it will be to exceed the expectations of the expert team.

When will Flag be selected as the All-Star for the first time?

Almost no one is optimistic about Flag's rookie season being selected as an All-Star. In the past 20 years of the league, Blake Griffin is the only rookie All-Star, and it was a season before officially debuting in the NBA. There are many cases of sophomore players being selected as All-Stars, including Vinbanyama, Bankairo, Lamelo Ball, Zion, Doncic, Trae Young, Ben Simmons and Embiid.

30.8% of experts believe Flag would be selected in the second grade, but the vast majority of experts believe that he only qualified for the All-Star in at least the third grade. Can

Flag win the MVP award?

In the short term, it is unlikely that Flag will become the first to break the monopoly of MVP by overseas players in the past seven years. Obviously, stars such as Edwards, Cunningham, Tatum and Brunson, who are also from the United States, are more competitive.

But that doesn't mean Flag won't win the MVP in the end.

It is worth noting that some insiders pointed out that Flag had some details that needed to be improved in the Summer League match, and he needed to gradually improve his shortcomings in order to achieve the expected level. Some factors beyond his control will also play a role, including the team's overall performance, the public opinion volume, and the performance of other players of his age.

Flag has the most favored American No. 1 pick since James and a comprehensive game style, which will attract the attention of MVP votes all-weather. Flag's ability to both offense and defense and his pleasing style of playing have made him hope to win MVP many times in his long career.

But don't forget that former Mavericks star Luca Doncic is still looking for his first MVP in his career, and we expected him to win the award multiple times. 65.4% of experts predict that Flag won at least once in his career.

Can Flag win the championship?

It is not easy to win the championship, even for the No. 1 pick. Flag is the 41st No. 1 pick since the NBA draft draw era, but historical data shows that only 10 of the top 40 No. 1 picks have won the championship.

Although this number may increase as the young No. 1 pick matures - the last No. 1 pick to win the championship was Andrew Wiggins in 2014 - history shows that Flagg's chances of winning the championship are still low, with only Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson for many championship titles.

However, Flag is a higher starting point than most No. 1 picks, and his potential predictions when entering the NBA are better than most top rookies. The Mavericks he joined are not a rebuilding team, but a mature lineup with multiple championship players. Fighting side by side with former No. 1 picks like Davis and Irving who have won the championship has put him in an environment closer to the championship from the beginning. 92.3% of experts believe Flag will win at least once in his career.

How many teams will Flag play for in his career?

Deck Nowitzki's experience shows that there is a precedent for playing for the Mavericks throughout his career. As the greatest player in team history, Nowitzki spent 21 seasons in Dallas - the longest record for a player in NBA history playing for a single team.

At the same time, given the fans' dissatisfaction with the trade of Doncic, the Mavericks should be particularly motivated to keep Flag for as long as possible, after all, Doncic was regarded as Nowitzki's successor at the time.

However, predicting whether modern NBA players can always play on the same team throughout their careers seems like a futile job. Among the top stars in the league for more than ten seasons, only Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker and Nikola Jokic have not changed the team.

Of course, some of the stars who previously played for the same team may still end their careers elsewhere in their late years. This also strongly implies that Flag could eventually leave, with 53.8% of experts predicting Flag would play for both teams, and only 3.8% of them believed that he would always play for the Mavericks.

Can Flag become one of the top 100 players in the league in his rookie season? It is rare for a rookie to be among the top 100 players, but Flag's ability to influence the game is enough to win a place. The key to the question is not whether he can be selected into the top 100, but how optimistic he will be in the end about his ranking.

In the draft stage, it is one thing to predict a rookie's career peak, but the initial learning curve is a complex variable, and each player's adaptability speed is different. While I don't think the Mavericks will put Flag in too many offensive organizational tasks, nor do I think he can be competent immediately, Flag's defensive intuition, passing ability and tenacious qualities will greatly benefit him when adapting to a competitive team. The overall forecast of the expert group is optimistic, with 53.8% of them believe that Flag is expected to enter the ranking range of the top 51-75 players in the rookie season, which is enough to show his strength and bright prospects.