Nov 010 20:30 Fredericksta VS Sapsburg Pre-match intelligence collection, sharing, analysis and prediction

Fredericksta VS Sapsburg

League: 2025 Norwegian Premier League (16 teams in total)

Norwegian Super League 20:30 Fredericksta VS Sapsburg Venue: Federest Stadium Weather: Light rain Temperature: 12℃~13℃

Fredericksta (home team) has 26 players, the team's value is €14.7m, 2 members of the national team, average age 24.2 years:

Record of the last 6 games: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, 21 goals in the last 10 games, conceded 9 goals, and 12 goals.

League Ranking: 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 16 points, ranking 4th in the league (upstream)

Home score: 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses

Personnel situation: No main player is injured or suspended, the lineup is complete.

Fredericksta player Emil Holten made 11 appearances this season, scoring 5 goals and having 3 assists, which is an important reliance on the team on the offensive end.

Team's fighting spirit: Fredericksta ranks fourth in the standings. The team is currently suffering two consecutive losses and urgently needs to score points to stop the decline. It is full of fighting spirit in this game.

Team recent situation: Fredericksta has won 4 wins and 1 loss in five leagues this season, and his home performance is quite good.

Fredericksta lost to Rosenberg 0-2 in the last game, but suffered two consecutive losses. The team is in poor form recently.

Fredericksta scored 6 goals and conceded 7 goals in the last 5 games. The team's offensive performance is acceptable, but the defense is not stable enough.

Fredericksta VS Sapsburg

Sapsburg (visit team) has 26 players, the team is worth €16.7m, 3 members of the national team, with an average age of 25.4 years:

The last 6 records: 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, 27 goals in the last 10 games, conceded 10 goals, and 17 goals.

League ranking: 8 games, 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 12 ranking 9th in the league (middle and upper reaches)

away results: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, 3 personnel situation: (No. 17 main left back) Anders Hiim, (No. 27 main left winger) Sondre Ørjasæter cannot play.

Sapsburg player Daniel Carlsbuck has made 8 appearances this season, scoring 6 goals, and is currently the top scorer in the team.

Team's fighting spirit: Sappsburg is currently ranked 9th in the standings, and the team still needs to strive to get points to improve their rankings and have sufficient fighting spirit.

Team Recent Status: Sappsburg has achieved an unbeaten record of 4 wins and 2 draws in 6 away games this season, and has performed very well in away games.

Sapsburg has scored 12 goals and conceded 5 goals in the last 5 games. The team has excellent offensive firepower and good performance on the defensive end.

Sapsburg lost to Tromso 0-1 in the last game, suffering the first loss in the last 6 games, and the team's form has declined.

Recent historical confrontations between the two teams: The two teams have only met twice in the official matches in the past five years, with Fredericksta winning 1 win and 1 draw, and taking the advantage in the psychological level of fighting.

Same Tracking aspect: Initial: The home team draws/half-ball, the home team has the same trading trend as the initial 6 games in the last 6 games: Win Win Win Win Loss Win Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win Win Win Win Win Win Win.

Fredericksta VS Sapsburg

Pre-match intelligence:

Fredericksta's lineup is healthy, no new injuries

Fredericksta has no new injuries in this game, and the team's main players can play normally. The only injury, Biartalid, is still recovering from injury and has not played for the team this season.

Sapsburg injury affects the lineup

Sapsburg, Anders Himm and Sandre Ordriant (7 games 1 goal and 2 assists), both failed to be included in the roster of this game due to injuries. In addition, the team's main midfielder Aimal Sher (10 games and 1 assist) was injured in the last game and it was difficult to make a appearance in this game. This undoubtedly had a certain impact on Sapsburg's lineup, and its overall strength had declined.

Fredericksta has been in a sluggish state recently

Fredericksta has failed to win the last three games, including being eliminated by Lillestrom in the fourth round of the Norwegian Cup. The team currently ranks fourth in the league and urgently needs a victory to stop the decline and restore morale.

Sapsburg's state fluctuates slightly, and is at the mid-level level

Sapsburg is currently ranked ninth with 12 points, and its overall state remains stable with little ups and downs. In recent years, Sapsburg has established its mid-range team status in the Nordic Super League and has ranked eighth and ninth respectively in the past three seasons. Their stability allows the team to gain a place in the league.

The record of the match between the two sides

Fredericksta only returned to the top league in the Nordic Super League last season, so there are not many matches with Sapsburg. Last season, in two matches in the league, Fredericksta won one win and one draw, remained unbeaten, showing a certain competitiveness.

Fredericksta VS Sapsburg

1. Strength Analysis

Fredericksta (Home Team): Last 10 games: 21 goals, 9 goals conceded, and 12 goals.

Sapsburg (visiting team): Last 10 games: 27 goals, 10 goals conceded, and 17 goals.

In the absolute theory world, the visiting team Sappsburg has an advantage of 0.5 goals, and Sappsburg has a stronger overall performance in recent games and has an advantage in theoretical strength.

2. Status Analysis

Fredericksta: Records of the last 6 games: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 10 points. Recent performance: suffered two consecutive losses, including a 0-2 loss to Rosenberg in the league and was eliminated in the Norwegian Cup, and his condition declined significantly. Offense and defense: Scoring 6 goals and conceding 7 goals in the last 5 games. The offense is good but the defensive loopholes are obvious. Home results: 4 wins and 1 loss in five leagues this season, with strong home fighting power.

Sapsburg: Record of last 6 games: 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses, with 11 points. Recent performance: Losing 0-1 to Tromso in the last game ended the previous unbeaten momentum, but the overall condition is still relatively stable. Offense and defense: Scoring 12 goals and conceding 5 goals in the last 5 games, with strong offensive firepower and moderate defensive performance. Away results: 4 wins and 2 draws in 6 away games this season, with a very high unbeaten rate on the away game.

Fredericksta's recent form is weak, especially the two consecutive losses have hit his morale hard, but his home performance is still competitive. Sappsburg is in a relatively stable state, with particularly outstanding away performances, and overall better than the home team.

3. Fighting intention analysis

Fredericksta: League ranking: 9 games, 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 16 points, ranking 4th (upstream). Having suffered two consecutive losses, it is urgent to win to stop the decline and consolidate the top four positions (the top four can participate in the European game). He plays at home and has a complete lineup and is full of fighting spirit.

Sapsburg: League ranking: 8 games, 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, 12 points, ranking 9th (middle and upper reaches). There is a gap between the points and the top four, so you need to get points to improve your ranking in order to achieve a better ranking. Despite the away game, the team still has the need to improve their rankings and is more willing to fight.

Frederick Stah is slightly stronger than Sapsburg due to his consecutive defeat pressure and home court advantage. Although Sapsburg has the motivation to improve its ranking, the lack of injuries to the two main players may weaken their combat capabilities.

4. Asian Index Analysis

The initial handicap is the home team's draw/half-ball, with the water level being 0.94 and the away team 0.86;

The current real-time handicap is the home team's draw/half-ball, with the water level being 0.98 and the away team 1.82.

Most mainstream institutions draw the home team draw/half-ball for the initial Asian handicap in this game. The home team has a high water, the away team has a low water, and some institutions directly draw the home team to a high water, and the away team has a high water, and the away team has a high water, and a few institutions draw the hemispheres with aggressive attitudes, using ultra-high water to block the upper hand and ultra-low water to lure the lower handicap to test the market's confidence in the away team. Most of the institutions that draw half sets are conservative, and the home team is not strong enough to get the half ball, but insist on giving a slight advantage.

The later stage gradually unified the handicap and gave the home team a draw/half-ball. The draw/half-ball matched Fredericksta's home advantage, but the water balance showed that the strength of both sides was close. The rise in the home team's water level and the decline in the away team's water level indicates that the market is gradually optimistic about Sapsburg, but the fundamentals show that its injury problems may be underestimated.

5. Institutional bottom line

main win: 2.15 / 2.02 ≈ 1.064;

draw: 3.30 / 3.22 ≈ 1.025;

away win: 3.30 / 3.10 ≈ 1.065.

The three values ​​are all within the bottom line of the organization, and the draw value is the lowest, which is more advantageous.

6. Handicap scheduled

is calculated based on the league rankings of the two teams, home and away factors and absolute theoretical strength differences. A reasonable handicap should be the home team Fredericksta's half-ball. In this game, the initial handicap is the home team's draw/half-ball, which is one gear lower than the theoretical handicap. This game is a low opening, and the handicap and water level are more conducive to the visiting team Sapsburg.

7. Analysis of the changes in win, draw and loss trends

Main win: gradually rose from 2.00 in the initial market to 2.25 in the real-time market, and the highest reached 2.35, indicating that the institution's confidence in Fredericksta's victory has declined, and the market's expectations for home team victory have weakened.

draw: From 3.75 in the initial market to 3.50 in the real market, the overall trend is showing a downward trend, indicating that institutions' confidence in the draw results has increased and the market's expectations for a draw have increased.

away win: Decline from 3.40 in the initial session to 3.00 in the real-time session, with a minimum of 2.88, indicating that institutions' confidence in Sapsburg's victory has increased and market expectations for the away team's victory has increased.

Trend Chart

8. Trading Data Analysis

Main Win: Transactions account for only 24% (the lowest in the game), but the orders are polarized: low-level defensive reception and high-level interception selling pressure. In line with the delivery defense during intensive transactions, the institution established a defense line at 2.36-2.34, implying that it is not optimistic about the main win but allows retail investors to buy at a high level.

draw: accounting for 44% (the highest in the game), but the transaction price rose against the trend (3.55→3.75), which is logically diverged from the conventional "high proportion = water level down". Huge selling orders with large orders at 3.5 and 3.7 prices show that the main institutions are resolutely accepting goods. Institutional defense + transaction price inverted, the probability of a draw is lower than the level implied by the transaction proportion.

Home win: The transaction accounted for 32%, but the buyer showed strong intervention: large orders were sold at 3.15-3.2, and the transaction price fell (3.4→3.1). The buyer's orders are deeply concentrated, and there are large orders at low levels of 3.0-3.1, revealing the main force's intention to absorb funds. The main funds are intervening in a low-key manner + the downward trend of transaction prices. If the selling pressure is exceeded on the spot, the away win is expected.

Online voting results

From the current winning, draw and loss water level data, compared with the results data of previous games, the average probability of winning is 41.9%, the average probability of drawing is 28.6%, the average probability of winning away is 29.5%, and the average handicap index of Asian handicap is 0.25.

Final prediction suggestions: main-1 negative

score probability: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 2-2 (10%)

Total number of goals probability: 2 goals (probability 25%), 1 goal (21%), 3 goals (probability 20%)

High probability does not necessarily mean that you can play. This is just a theoretical value and provides auxiliary reference. Analyses can only be performed based on current data. On-site data may change. If the on-site data changes greatly, you still need to make careful judgments.