European pre-select: Armenia vs Portugal

Turning out the two teams' confrontation records in the past 15 years, although Armenia did not win at home against Portugal, it repeatedly showed the potential of a "giant killer". In the 2015 European Cup qualifiers, Armenia lost 2-3 to Portugal. Although the loss was a shocking opponent. What is more interesting is that Armenia's home loss is mostly "small losses" - in the last four matches, the winning rate (that is, the actual score is better than the handicap expectations) is as high as 50%. This is like a tenacious grass, although it is suppressed by a huge rock, but it can always poke its head out of the gap.

However, historical data also exposed Armenia's shortcomings: insufficient offensive efficiency. In the last four matches, the big ball rate (the total number of goals exceeded the handicap expectations) is only 25%. Facing Portugal's defense, they often find it difficult to continue to put pressure. The article comes from Gong Zonghao - World Popular Fat Tiger

Armenia's recent performance is like a roller coaster. The shadow of the UEFA Europa League defeat of Georgia has not yet dissipated, and the friendly match lost to Kosovo 2-5, and the loopholes in the defense were torn to pieces by the opponent. But the team is not without highlights: when playing at home, they tied Montenegro 2-2, and the cooperation between defensive end players was described by local media as "gradual solidification cement."

In contrast, Portugal maintains the stable output of the top European teams. The European League has made rapid progress, and the personal abilities and tactical execution of the stars form a "precision gear set". Even in the away game, the forward line led by Ronaldo can still accurately cut the opponent's defense line like a scalpel. However, the physical energy consumption brought by the last round of high-intensity competition may become their "invisible landmines".

The Armenian coach's formation ideas are clearly visible: shrink the defense line and wait for an opportunity to counterattack. In recent home games, the team deliberately compressed the backcourt space, and the average distance between the centre-backs was only 12 meters - equivalent to dense defenses of the length of a bus. This "iron barrel formation" strategy once allowed Portugal to win only 1-0 away in 2014.

The key to breaking the deadlock in Portugal is to blast the side. B Silva and Leo's winger combination averaged 8.3 times per game this season, like two high-speed cutting machines. But the plateau home court (Yervo is about 1,000 meters above sea level) may weaken their sprint efficiency. The dispatch of the midfield core B fee will become the winner and loser. His long pass accuracy (83% this season) can bypass dense defense and directly find the front fulcrum.

Yerrevan's home advantage comes not only from fans' cheers. Scientific research shows that for every 300 meters above sea level, the maximum oxygen intake of athletes drops by about 2% - meaning that Portuguese players may experience collective fatigue of "plateau hypoxia" after the 70th minute. If Armenia wants to be upset, it must seize the "golden window period" of the last 20 minutes.

But there are also hidden dangers: two main defenders in Armenia were suspended due to cumulative yellow cards, and the substitute players turned slowly and might be penetrated by Portugal's straight pass. In Portugal, although goalkeeper Costa's save success rate (78%) is high, his judgment of set pieces is still a weakness, which gives Armenian header the opportunity to "steal the chicken".

Armenian captain Mkhitaryan said bluntly at the press conference: "We respect Portugal, but we will not play on our knees." This statement was interpreted as psychological pressure - after all, he has fought against the Portuguese international in the Bundesliga many times and is well aware of his opponent's character. Portuguese coach Santos responded: "There is no natural victory on the football field", suggesting that he will not underestimate the enemy.

Overall, this game may present a script of "Portuguese field control - Armenian sneak attack". In the initial stage, Portugal is likely to lead the attack, but if it cannot be defeated for a long time, Armenia's counterattack will suddenly attack like a hidden weapon hidden in the cuff. The score is predicted by 1-2 or 0-1, but the competition process must be stalemate-like cutting through tough cowhide with a blunt knife, every inch of pushing has to be paid.

For fans, this is not only a 90-minute competitive confrontation, but also a modern interpretation of the story of "David and Goliath" in the football world. Regardless of the result, under the night sky of Yerevan, two completely different football philosophy will surely collide with dazzling sparks.