70% winning rate vs midfield loss! Can Chelsea continue to suppress Crystal Palace at home?

The first round of the Premier League will start at 21:00 on August 17, with Chelsea playing against Crystal Palace at home. Chelsea's last 10 home games against Crystal Palace, 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with a winning rate of 70%. The offensive and defensive data of scoring 28 goals and conceding only 8 goals highlights the home team's long-term suppression. This advantage is continued in the recent state. Chelsea has 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 10 home games, with a winning rate of up to 80%, averaging 2.6 goals and conceded 0.6 goals. The balance between offense and defense is top-notch. Especially the friendly match against AC Milan on August 10, showing off firepower on the offensive end. The combination of wing breakthrough and middle penetration makes it difficult for the opponent to resist. However, guards Ferfana, midfielder Lavia and Kelian need to be vigilant - although the three have not yet appeared, the thickness of the defensive line rotation and the intensity of the interception in the midfield may be affected, which may leave room for Crystal Palace to counterattack.

Crystal Palace has 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the last 10 games, with a winning rate of only 30%. The offensive and defensive data of scoring 15 goals and conceding 17 goals exposed loopholes in the defense (conceded 1.7 goals per game). The key is that the absence of midfielder Oji Kamada (knee injury, expected to return in late August) has caused the team to break from defense to offense - You should know that he averaged 2.3 key passes per game last season, which is the key to tandem offense and defense. But Crystal Palace is not without resilience. On September 1, 2024, the Premier League tied Chelsea 1-1, which created surprises with intensive defense (19 interceptions per game) and counterattack efficiency.

Chelsea is likely to continue high-pressure pressing (58% per game possession rate), using crosses from the wing (accounting for 42% of the offense) to attack the Crystal Palace defense line; if Crystal Palace shrinks its defense line, it needs to rely on the winger's counterattack, targeting Chelsea's wide open space due to midfield injury.

combined with data, predict the score 2-1 or 1-1. Chelsea still has the dominance of home court, but Crystal Palace's resilience may continue the suspense of the game until the end of the game.