20250824-25 Simulation prediction of mainstream European leagues based on goal expectation model and institutional data

The expected goal model is used to simulate the number of goals and the difference between the two teams, and compare them with the actual concession index of the institutions to analyze the strength gap between the two teams. Basic judgment principle: If an institution looks higher than a team, and gives more concessions, the team is more beneficial, but if the high opening is more than 0.5, especially above 0.75, it is necessary to analyze in detail, because the high opening of the institution may be a strength plate or a temptation plate. Generally speaking, the positive strength plate is mainly used, and abnormal data marked yellow or orange are likely to be unpopular or psychologically unpopular.

Difficulties in judgment: At present, it is difficult to judge games with close goals, small differences and close strength. It is necessary to analyze in detail based on institutional data, and it is also difficult to speculate on the score of 0-0.

The data is very different, and there is a cold game:

Eleven 18:15 Helenfen Twente, expected goals 1.5, 1.2, the difference is 0.3, the agency draws the away team and gives a high water or a draw, and the away team plays more difficult

Bundesliga 23:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Hamburg, expected goals 1.6, 1.7, the difference is -0.1, the agency draws the home team and gives a medium water 0.5, and the middle water, and the game is doubtful

Ligue 1 2:45 Lille Monaco, expected goals 1.5 and 1.4, with a difference of 0.1, the agency opened higher and allowed 0.5 to get high. The away team played more difficult. The away team played more. The strength was close. The right path was unstable and the draw was close to the draw:

Premier League 21:00 Crystal Palace Nottingham Forest, expected goals 1.4 and 1.2, with a difference of 0.2, the main goal was 0.25 to get high and it was difficult.

Premier League 21:00 Everton Brighton, expected goals 1.4 and 1.6, with a difference of -0.2, and a high water drop of 0.25 away, making it difficult to play.

La Liga 23:00 Osasuna Valencia, expected goals 1.1, 1.1, with a difference of 0, close to a draw.

Serie A 0:30 Cagliari Fiorentina, expected goals 1.2 and 1.4, with a difference of -0.2, the away team's concessions were soft, and the theory was tied.

Serie A 0:30 Como Lazio, expected goals 1.4 and 1.4, with a difference of 0, the away team's concessions were soft, and the theory was tied.